Despite a rash of gushing news stories about the successes of Apple Computer's Mac OS X (on the client) and Linux (on the server), Windows not only continues to dominate its rivals in both markets but also is growing in both markets. Market researchers at IDC say that various versions of the Windows desktop and server OSs currently dominate their respective markets and will continue to do so for at least the next 4 years. IDC credits Microsoft's volume-licensing programs for the company's ability to grow its share when it's already the dominant player. "As Microsoft has brought in [Windows XP and Windows 2000], there's been a lot of good reasons for customers to go out and buy brand new operating systems," IDC analyst Al Gillen said. "It's probably unrealistic to expect Microsoft to continue to drive the market as hard as it has been [doing]." According to the report, "Worldwide Client and Server Operating Environment Market Forecast and Analysis, 2002-2007," Windows desktop OS sales worldwide increased from 93.2 percent of the market in 2001 to 93.8 percent in 2002, accounting for more than $9.75 billion in sales. Various Mac OS versions stalled in second place, with just 2.9 percent of the market (and 2.2 percent of the revenues), although IDC noted that Apple will soon relinquish second place to Linux, which saw desktop growth in 2002 to 2.3 percent of the market. All told, 121 million client OSs shipped in 2002, IDC says; about 113 million were XP, 3.5 million were Mac OS, and 2.9 million were Linux. The server side of the equation also has an interesting breakdown. In 2002, Windows Server products owned 55.1 percent of the market, from a unit-shipment standpoint, up from 50.5 percent in 2001. Second-place Linux accounted for 23.1 percent of new shipments, up from 22.4 percent in 2001. Only Windows and Linux saw growth in 2002. Combined, all UNIX OS versions declined 8.9 percent year over year; Novell NetWare fell 12.4 percent. IDC also noted that the SCO Group lawsuit against Linux companies is having an effect. "Even if the litigation is resolved, the incident may forever put to rest the notion that Linux is 'free' software that can be deployed on any machine without any accountability for ownership and licensing," the IDC report reads. "This weakens a major area of differentiation between Linux and more commercialized operating environments." However, IDC believes that the SCO lawsuit will be resolved and that Linux use will grow through 2007. Windows Server will still dwarf Linux during that time period, however, the report says. "Microsoft generates about the same amount of OS revenue in 3 days as the entire Linux industry generates in 1 year," IDC notes.
End of Article
"Microsoft's Windows Server products owned 55.1 percent of the market in 2002, from a unit shipment standpoint, up from 50.5 percent in 2001. Second-place Linux accounted for 23.1 percent of new shipments, up from 22.4 percent in 2001."
Hmmm...
Doing the math shows Microsoft's market share growing 5 times faster than LINUX's, doesn't it? With a growth *rate* that is more than double that of LINUX. And that is *before* the new SBS package gets much traction in the market and before the new Office System server stategy kicks in. So, at a minimum, '04 is likely to be more of the same.
If Microsoft continues this level of growth, 5 share points per year, which is not really unreasonable, looking at the schedule of future server technology deployments (Yukon, longhorn, etc) they'll likely hit 70-plus percent share by 07, while LINUX gets to, at best, 25%.
This suggests that the the server market is currently a 70-20-10 market that will likely over time evolve into an 80-20 market. This means LINUX has likely peaked in its market penetration and will start to give up significant market share to MS as MS continues to outpace LINUX growth rates in the near term.
Of course, the Open Sourcerors will point to all the non-paid installations of "free" LINUX, but, as banks and other industries know all too-well, some customers you *don't* want to do business with, anyway. After all, non-paying customers really aren't customers at all, for a for-profit operation, no?
Considering the state of the commercial UNIX business, SUN in particular, LINUX is looking to be a very good thing indeed for MS.
Felix Torres October 09, 2003
Yes, I was wondering if you had counted the 5 Macs at my house.
Art carran October 09, 2003
What percent of Microsoft's desktop 'stomp' is attributable to millions of corporate users like me who are provided with a Win2K/XP box and no other choice? I get around Win2K fine at the office, but much prefer running Jag and now Panther (in 2 weeks) to VPN and VNC into the office.
Brich October 09, 2003
This report measures the unit shipments. In out company all linux server are shipped with Windows on it but reinstalled with linux. Aditionally some older windows servers are reinstalled with linux for intranet serving, file or print serving. So if you want to actually count the number of servers running with windows you need to decrease the Windows number and increase the linux number.
Staf Verhaegen October 10, 2003
Paul, you seem to ignore the fact that, according to IDC, over 23% of customers preferred to pay for otherwise free Linux over buying a Windows OS. This also means that these numbers don't take free installations into account.
Editor's note: Free installations aren't used in enterprises. --Paul
Ian Kovalsky October 10, 2003
You could at least mention that the report only covered purchases of operating systems, and so does not indicate the overall popularity of Linux (or, for that matter, pirate copies of Windows).
And while sales of Linux may not generate that much revenue, the value of Linux is to the users, not to the companies selling it. The "Linux industry" is every company that uses Linux: it is far, far larger than the commercial operating system market, with revenues to match.
Peter Olsen October 10, 2003
Does your data include computers purchased from a manufacturer that bundles the OS with the computer purchase?
I wonder because some of those computers may be counted as Windows, when in fact the user changes the OS to a different OS, for instance Linux.
Just a thought...
Rob October 10, 2003
"Editor's note: Free installations aren't used in enterprises. --Paul"
What enterprise do you work in Paul? That statement is just plain false.
Porthos October 10, 2003
>> Editor's note: Free installations aren't used in enterprises. --Paul
Sure they are. And how would you know this anyways? Are you in the field surveying companies? :)
Editor's note: How do you know the reverse isn't true? I'm not sure what you do for a living, but I spend a large portion of my time, yes, discussing these topics with large companies. -- Paul
Scott D October 10, 2003
"Free installations aren't used in enterprises. --Paul"
They are where I work. Guess it's not an "enterprise," it's just a "big company".
Editor's note: There are examples of anything out there, such as companies that use the same copy of Windows on more than one machine. Those aren't counted either, but surely represent a larger customer base than people using downloaded copies of Linux. We can do fun things with unprovable statistics if we're bored enough. --Paul
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Hmmm...
Doing the math shows Microsoft's market share growing 5 times faster than LINUX's, doesn't it? With a growth *rate* that is more than double that of LINUX. And that is *before* the new SBS package gets much traction in the market and before the new Office System server stategy kicks in. So, at a minimum, '04 is likely to be more of the same.
If Microsoft continues this level of growth, 5 share points per year, which is not really unreasonable, looking at the schedule of future server technology deployments (Yukon, longhorn, etc) they'll likely hit 70-plus percent share by 07, while LINUX gets to, at best, 25%.
This suggests that the the server market is currently a 70-20-10 market that will likely over time evolve into an 80-20 market. This means LINUX has likely peaked in its market penetration and will start to give up significant market share to MS as MS continues to outpace LINUX growth rates in the near term.
Of course, the Open Sourcerors will point to all the non-paid installations of "free" LINUX, but, as banks and other industries know all too-well, some customers you *don't* want to do business with, anyway. After all, non-paying customers really aren't customers at all, for a for-profit operation, no?
Considering the state of the commercial UNIX business, SUN in particular, LINUX is looking to be a very good thing indeed for MS.
Felix Torres October 09, 2003