Print - Zunestory: Microsoft Talks Zune Expectations

Stung by recent criticism of the marketing and functionality of its Zune portable media player, Microsoft this week revealed its plans for the device and--in a rare disclosure--its expectations for sales during Zune's first holiday season. According to a Microsoft representative who briefed me about these plans yesterday, the company expects to ship more than 1 million Zune players by the end of its fiscal year, which ends June 30, 2007. That's enough to give Zune 10 to 20 percent of the market currently dominated by the Apple iPod, with which the Zune most closely competes.

Assuming that happens, Zune wouldn't be a total wash, because during last year's holiday season the number-one non-iPod product in the more than-$200 MP3 player market sold only a fraction of that number. It's also worth noting that Zune went from its first whiteboard scribbles to a finished product in about 10 months--a monumental feat for a company that isn't particularly well known for moving quickly.

Many--myself included--have criticized or even decried Microsoft's entry into this market, the underwhelming marketing of the device, and the lack of certain features. Microsoft has admitted to making some mistakes--such as the viral marketing scheme that appears to have fallen flat, in my opinion, with consumers--but it defends its decision to enter this important market now and says it's here for the long haul. I'm told that Microsoft will ship numerous functional updates to the existing Zune player and launch new Zune devices with new form factors and unique features in the next year.

The key to Microsoft's decision to make the Zune, I was told, is that although Apple controls 75 to 80 percent of the overall MP3 player market, Apple almost completely controls the only parts of the market that make money (i.e., large-capacity MP3 players). For all its work creating the underlying technologies for the PlaysForSure initiative, Microsoft watched as its numerous hardware partners managed to collectively steal only tiny amounts of share in the low-end flash memory player market. This business model clearly isn't sustainable.

Speed was another problem. Although Microsoft could do the plumbing work to support new features (e.g., podcasting) as they arrived--and then revise Windows Media Player (WMP) to support those features--getting all its hardware and services partners lined up at the same time to support new features proved to be impossible. For Microsoft to offer any kind of concerted competition for the dominant iPod, it had to do so alone. And Apple had proven that there were billions of dollars to be made in portable music. Thus, the people behind the Zune could champion the potential to Microsoft's leaders.

To ship a product quickly, however, Microsoft had to look at core functionality and try to deliver some key differentiators. Although the Zune does lack several features that the iPod boasts, customers rarely use most of those features anyway, and Microsoft intends to close the gap in time. Furthermore, the Zune does include a few unique features of its own, such as Wi-Fi connectivity and a Send feature that lets Zune users wirelessly share content.

This holiday season is a "beachhead" period for Microsoft, during which it's trying to change people's perceptions of the MP3 player market from "Apple and everyone else" to "Apple and Microsoft and everyone else." From this perspective, the company has been somewhat successful. Despite lukewarm reviews, the Zune is a hotly debated product among influentials. Looking forward, Microsoft intends for Zune to be profitable in 12 to 24 months. "This is the fuel we need to go after Apple on a long-term basis," said the Microsoft representative.

There's a lot more to this story, of course, so I'll provide a more in-depth look at Microsoft's plans for the Zune later this week on the SuperSite for Windows. Stay tuned.
http://www.winsupersite.com/

LOL, stick! Let's see, let me crack open the data I have set up for this to copy and paste from: c:\documents and settings\MS Fanboy\My Documents\Reasons MS roolez.doc c:\documents and settings\MS Fanboy\My Documents\Marketshare stats.xls C:\Program Files\Microsoft SQL Server\MSSQL\Data\bonchposts.mdf (Currently a 10GB database!)

"Microsoft intends for Zune to be profitable in 12 to 12 months." Paul -- get some proof readers!!! bmnbmn - you might not be able to insert some of those files into a PowerPoint...the pathname may be getting too long!!! --tayme

"It's also worth nothing that Zune went from the first whiteboard scribbles to finished product in about 10 months, a monumental feat for a company that isn't particularly well know for moving quickly." That's because the Zune is nothing more than a branded Toshiba Gigabeat. It's easy to get new crap to market when you just stamp your logo on existing crap. I notice Paul isn't mentioning Microsoft's huge announcement of a new zero-day exploit affecting all versions of Microsoft Word (http://www.microsoft.com/technet/security/advisory/929433.mspx). Microsoft advises you not to open any attachments from anybody, 'lest you allow arbitrary code to magically execute. Hahaha...

@tayme: "bmnbmn - you might not be able to insert some of those files into a PowerPoint...the pathname may be getting too long!!!" Welcome to Microsoft engineering. Any path name longer than 128 characters, and Powerpoint silently rejects it. Welcome to the glorious monopoly and its "modern" technology.

Looks like Paul finally got his "stop trashing Zune!" e-mail from Microsoft. Look, I don't care if Microsoft wants to try to compete, but for cryin' out loud--this product is a mess. And it's amazing how they've dumped all over their partners. Sickening. Why anyone would ever trust Microsoft again is beyond me. "Microsoft watched as its numerous hardware partners, collectively, managed only to steal tiny amounts of share in the low-end flash memory player part of the business. This is not a sustainable business model, I was told." Well, that's because the "Plays for Sure" model didn't work half the time. Apple understood this from the beginning, and it's remarkable to watch the MicroSheep bleat the glories of the Zune when, in fact, it has everything they hate about the iPod except an Apple logo. Sometimes, though, that's enough. Whatever.

"I notice Paul isn't mentioning Microsoft's huge announcement of a new zero-day exploit affecting all versions of Microsoft Word..." Hmmm. I thought Waethorn responded to it last night. Of course, as usual you chose to ignore it and post the same crap under another article. "bonchposts.mdf?? I think you mean presetonposts.mdf!" Naah, I think this covers all of them - bonch, preseton, vandil, vandil2, etc.

@bmnbmn Above are two more posts for you to add to your "bonchposts.mdf" database. Wait...Actually, these posts are exactly the same as ones posted in numerous other articles - I believe the one about the security vulnerability in Word 2003 and earlier was posted 3 times. Never mind. Actually, it would be great if everyone just ignored Preseton and had a rational, on-topic discussion. I recently tried a Zune at Best Buy and I actually liked it. It seems easy to use, and I like the fact that it is possible to semi-navigate the interface without looking at the device. What I would like to see is an option to turn on verbal prompts that would speak the current menu option, the song selected, etc.. This would make it possible to completely navigate the device without having to look at it.

"Look, I don't care if Microsoft wants to try to compete, but for cryin' out loud--this product is a mess." Question: Have you tried the Zune yourself, or have you only read the reviews?

I think I might wii myself if this 'sub par product' steals 10% marketshare in its first 6months, a task Apple's superior products have failed to do in 6 years.

Preseton(one of the bonch identities)- My goal with that succeeded. It was a pre-flame aimed right at you!!! I see that it hit its spot... How about a response to all of the OS X and Quicktime exploits that Waethorn and I pointed out to you yesterday...waiting...nope, I didn't think so!!! For your benefit, since you probably haven't gone back to check, here they are again: http://secunia.com/advisories/23178/ http://secunia.com/advisories/23159/ http://secunia.com/advisories/23120/ http://www.eweek.com/article2/0,1895,2067683,00.asp?kc=EWNAVEMNL120506EOAD --tayme

"... it's remarkable to watch the MicroSheep bleat the glories of the Zune when, in fact, it has everything they hate about the iPod except an Apple logo." "Look, I don't care if Microsoft wants to try to compete, but for cryin' out loud--this product is a mess." I saw the Zune at Best Buy. It was good. :-) And I didn't even need to rotate my thumb. Woohoo!!

Here's my question: WHY do you people want Microsoft to beat Apple in digital media? WHY do you want Microsoft to gain another monopoly? Suppose they do unseat the iPod. Suppose in a year the Zune has a 90% marketshare.... We've SEEN what Microsoft does when it achieves that: it lets the product stagnate and coasts on for years. Microsoft already HAS two huge monopolies. Why do you people keep supporting their drive to gain more? If it's because "competition is good" then you should be supporting Sansa and Creative - companies that really could challenge Apple if they just got their act together. Either of those companies would be a better choice than Microsoft to gain ascendency over the iPod. It just doesn't make sense to me that you can go around hoping Microsoft grows to dominate every market in technology. What a horrid world that would be. And Tayme: What kind of response would you like? Something like: "Oh, Tayme, you're so clever! You've found vulnerabilities in complex software! Wait... no.. you didn't find the vulnerabilities. But you DID find articles by reporters who talked to the people who found them! HOW do you keep the women from attacking you in the streets!?" Or perhaps the cliche "Yea, well, here's a list of the latest MS flaws: [edited for length]. My list is bigger than your list!" Or perhaps a more condescending approach: "Awww... that's a good boy! Look at what you did! Let's put that up on the fridge so everyone can see it!" Tell me, which would you prefer?

Drive letters. Heh. The 1980s called, they want their drive mounting scheme back.

"http://www.eweek.com/article2/0,1895,2067683,00.asp?kc=EWNAVEMNL120506EOAD" I think the Quicktime exploit on MySpace.com proves that Mac has security not because of great engineering but because their are not that many users. MySpace.com has millions of users.

Who cares how many bricks Micro$oft ships? What counts is how many they sell! In all of the stores where I have seen the Zune I have seen absolutely no interest expressed by customers! None whatsoever! Contrast that with the many purchases of iPods that I have witnessed during those same visits and it is a pretty good indication that most Zunes are just sitting on the shelf gathering dust. Micro$oft thinks that by generating phony buzz for the product that it will automatically translate into some sales. People aren't so easily duped! Witness the many phony "fan" sites set up even before the Zune was released. Too bad Micro$oft is incapable of developing a product that earns its own buzz!

"Tell me, which would you prefer?" What about bonch/vandil/preseton/bleh? Oh and the new member of the Genius bar, WindozeBloze? At least this way they shut up for a while and don't post the same comment until Paul posts a new article.

"WHY do you people want Microsoft to beat Apple in digital media? WHY do you want Microsoft to gain another monopoly? Suppose they do unseat the iPod. Suppose in a year the Zune has a 90% marketshare.... We've SEEN what Microsoft does when it achieves that: it lets the product stagnate and coasts on for years." I find fault in those statements. First, Vista's problem is they bit off more than they could chew. And while their engineering practices needing improving, their desire to improve was there. Secondly Office just saw a major re-invention in Office 2007 and I can garuntee you it wasn't from Open Office or G-Office. "Microsoft already HAS two huge monopolies. Why do you people keep supporting their drive to gain more? If it's because "competition is good" then you should be supporting Sansa and Creative - companies that really could challenge Apple if they just got their act together. Either of those companies would be a better choice than Microsoft to gain ascendency over the iPod." I think people have a fundamental misunderstanding between monopolies of consumables like oil and monopolies of non-consumables. Monopolies of consumables are very dangerous because you always need more. Once you have control you don't need to improve because people will continue to buy your sub-standard stuff because there is a need. Monopolies of non-consumables produce a very different effect. You in a sense are competing with yourself. You see this a lot in Windows and Office. They both do _enough_ and people often find little reason to get the latest incarnation. So, as a company, you have to keep moving and improving because if you next product isn't better than your previous one, you'll fail. Now the intervening factor here is that there's increasing demands from new software and games. This creates a hybrid effect as people continue to buy new computers, but you can't grow this way as a company, only stay still.

bdkjones- what I'd really like is for the bonch identities to just quit posting off topic rants...when that happens, then I will do the same...I will rebuff him/her/whatever at every opportunity with the same type of trash that they post. Get over it or move on... --tayme

@WindozeBloze "Micro$oft.." Your reputation with most of the commenters will quickly go out the window when you write words like that. Hint: The majority of people on this $ection are Window$ IT Pro$. They probably work with Micro$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$uck$ $oftware all day long, like my$elf. $ome of them actually enjoy u$ing it; for me, one app I e$pecially enjoy u$ing i$ Vi$ual $tudio 2005. :-) On topic... I'm willing to give the Zune a year or two before evaluating whether or not it will be a success. What makes this "war" interesting is that Apple's and Microsoft'a positions are reverses.

I have a Zune. I love it, so far I still find it way more fuctional than my wife's iPod. And I was able to get it to work with Vista by the way. As a software developer I also know that MS will,over time, provide some APIs to write to this device and extends its functionality. So from that perspective alone it is a good buy. It may not be as sexy as the iPod, but hey.. the iPod is old news now.. next generation belongs to the Zune player

"Question: Have you tried the Zune yourself, or have you only read the reviews?" Yes, I've tried the Zune. Yes, I still think it's a mess.

"I have a Zune. I love it..." I see the Microsoft bloggers found this site. Welcome, Redmond!

" Drive letters. Heh. The 1980s called, they want their drive mounting scheme back." /hda/ /hdb/ /hdc/ The 1960s called, they want their drive mounting scheme back. Couldn't resist.

To avoid my database from getting too big, I will need to purge some of those records. I had to set the primary key to an incremental "Entry No.", otherwise I would get errors on record insertion, since many posts are duplicates. Can someone provide me with a good T-SQL script? ;) And what is really the problem with MS going in to more markets? They are allowed to do it. Heck, if they wanted to start building cars, they could do it. If they feel that they can compete in a market, then I say more power to them. Who would have thought that Apple would have created a portable music player? People use the term monopoly. But, how could they really create a monopoly in this market? If the Zune is soooo bad, and people are already stuck with DRM'ed music in the iTMS, there shouldn't be a problem, right??? Nobody complains about the iTMS monopoly, do they? And lotsa, what do we call you guys, the Apple bloggers? Oh, right, Apple doesn't have any inside bloggers sanctioned by the company, so that can't be it.

This marks article 2,342 about Zune. Have the articles changed much beyond "MS is making a mistake. How could MS screw this up so much."? And, while we're at it, has there been a comments section after one of these articles that didn't follow this recipe: 1. The Zune is awful. iPod rules. 2. The occassional Zune fan posting (kinda sheepishly) they like the Zune. 3. iPeople bash Zune fan and accuse him of working for MS. Add a pinch of normal bonch-isms and whatever his latest rant is (PowerPoint this month), mix well, and bake at 350 for 20 minutes, or until golden brown.

"the company expects to ship over 1 million Zune players by the end of their fiscal year, which ends June 30, 2007. That's enough to give Zune 10 to 20 percent of the market currently enjoyed by the Apple iPod device the Zune most closely competes with." Hahahahahaha, okay... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPod#Sales This year iPod sales reached 40 million......... Let me catch my breath for a minute haha. I don't know what the person at Microsoft was smoking when they came up with 1 million Zune fiscal equating to a possible 20% of the market, but it must have been some good shiot. Microsoft needs to ship out a hell of a lot more than 1 million fiscal if they even plan to breach 2% of this market, considering Apple just sold (not shipped) 40 million this year.

"Hahahahahaha, okay..." "This year iPod sales reached 40 million......... Let me catch my breath for a minute haha." "I don't know what the person at Microsoft was smoking when they came up with 1 million Zune fiscal equating to a possible 20% of the market, but it must have been some good shiot." Read the article, Derek. Read it properly. Pay attention. "That's enough to give Zune 10 to 20 percent of the market currently enjoyed by the Apple iPod device the Zune most closely competes with." This version of Zune obviously doesn't compete with all versions the iPod? "Have the articles changed much beyond "MS is making a mistake. How could MS screw this up so much."?" Paul's tone has changed a bit. Apart from that... no, nothing. iPod rules. Zune sucks. Microsoft is dying.

"Read the article, Derek. Read it properly. Pay attention." Not to mention that probably 99% of the people that bought the first several million of that 40 million have probably thrown them in the garbage log ago and bought a newer generation iPod or other player. --tayme

shark I read it just fine, and it is still the same the second time I read it. Paul is saying that Microsoft stated they will ship out 1 million Zune units fiscal and that would give Microsoft between 10 to 20 percent of the market. There is only one MP3 player market from which the Zune can compete, which means it is headed up against all iPod models and total iPod sales reaching 40 million this year and the holiday season isn't even over with. Still sounds the same to me, I don't see how Zune couldn't possibly capture 20 percent of the market with as little as 1 million units on the shelf. But listen, it was to make a point that the figure doesn't add up to me with the link I provided about iPod sales. I have a little story about Zune myself. Yesterday I played around on one in EB Games here in Charlotte NC as I was picking up my copy of Gears of War Limmited Edition (nice GOW article Paul on the SuperSite btw), and honestly I thought it was cool. As a lover of technology I didn't think it was too bad, althought my friends didn't share the same optimism I had. It was bulky and a little over weight compared to an iPod, but I suppose it's no different than anything. I'm rather upset Microsoft is only pushing out as little as they are, competition could only make iPods get better. While I find the market share predictions to be as goofy as any, that doesn't mean I disslike the product or the maker of the product.

"Not to mention that probably 99% of the people that bought the first several million of that 40 million have probably thrown them in the garbage log ago and bought a newer generation iPod or other player." A college professor of mine once told me 99% of all statistics are made up on the spot. And I doubt your claims, customer reviews would be floored if that many people had problems with their iPods. If so, they wouldn't be forking out hundreds more for another one either.

Since when has rushing something technological to market with a clear industry leader, truely benefits anyone? In the end, the losses are substancial. Microsoft has to eat some crow for the Zune. There is so much the Redmond boys could have done to make the Zune attractive. Instead of the average FM tuner, how about HD-Radio tuner as well? Creating the Zune Marketplace was a bad idea, since Microsoft sponsored the Urge store. I bet the guys at MTV are now saying, WTF? It would have been nice to have options with music stores, but thats one IPod duplicate feature they should have stayed away from. Making it functional with WMP should have been obvious from the start. How many computers have some version of WMP? Even Apple had to copy functions from WMP in Itunes 7. The lack of Podcasting function was a major blunder. And not being able to use the hard drive for anything other than music or picture storage was another blunder. Imagine if they added a address book, notepad function, calender function, etc? Can we say blackberry meets ipod? Use the Wi-Fi with texting functions and a browser? The whole DRM really needs to go. The music industry needs no handout. The ridiculous prices of CD's was handout enough. If anything, they should be giving us free Zune and IPod downloads for the way they've swindled people out of their money, not to mention the artists they've screwed over. Its even worse now that we can't give copies of our songs to our friends. The 3 plays/days limit should be a clear infringement. We should be able to hand copies of that music like we did cassettes and cd's. Microsoft needs to do what the good video game designers do when they start a new project. Give us some idea of what they want to do, and they say it will be finished, "When its Done!" Instead of rushing things, how about some quality? Do some test marketing? Instead of giving us more garbage, how about something we really can use?

"I read it just fine, and it is still the same the second time I read it. Paul is saying that Microsoft stated they will ship out 1 million Zune units fiscal and that would give Microsoft between 10 to 20 percent of the market." The article mentions clearly: "... the Apple iPod device the Zune most closely competes with." "... Zune isn't a total wash, as the number one non-iPod product in the over-$200 MP3 player market during last year's holiday season only sold a tiny fraction of that amount." and finally: "...that while Apple controls 75 to 80 percent of the overall market for MP3 players, Apple completely controls the only parts of the market that make money (i.e. large capacity MP3 players)." What is being said here is that Zune's direct competetition is the 30+ gig iPods. There is no Zune Shuffle or Zune Nano. There is just the 30 gig model. Apple 80% dominace is ALL ipods combined. Tke the Shuffle and Nano out of the equasion and the numbers sold goes down while market share goes up simply because there is no real, direct competition for the larger capacity iPods. Creative isn't gaining any ground there and neither is anyone else.

... I meant to finish off that with: Creative isn't gaining any ground there and neither is anyone else. Maybe Zune can.

"A college professor of mine once told me 99% of all statistics are made up on the spot. And I doubt your claims, customer reviews would be floored if that many people had problems with their iPods. If so, they wouldn't be forking out hundreds more for another one either." Derek - you do need to learn to read...I said probably-that makes it an estimate, not a statistic. And the reason that they are throwing them away isn't because of problems...its because they are the old model-the kids want the newest model every time...and many(NOT A STATISTIC) parents are happy to oblige. Combine that with the people who have reached the end of the non-consumer replacable battery life and opt to buy a newer model rather than shell out the bucks to get the battery swapped and the possibility(AGAIN, NOT A STATISTIC) of dropped, broken, lost, stolen, otherwise no longer in existance iPods, then yes-many(ONE LAST TIME, NOT A STATISTIC) of the first few generations of iPods sold that are included in the 40,000,000(THIS ONE MIGHT BE A STATISTIC) iPods sold no longer exist or work. --tayme

sicknick My point is that there are not individual markets per iPod models. I'm saying the whole part of that article is completely wrong. You can't have 20% of the "30GB only iPod model market." It doesn't exist. Yes, Zune is absolutely competing against all models of MP3 players in the MP3 player market. That would include all iPod sales. Unless of course, one is to suggest that there is individual MP3 player markets between different models. In which case I'd say the person who suggests that is silly. That'd be like saying Ford has 20% of the Jeep Liberty market. No, I don't follow you there. Or Paul, or Microsoft. subzero "Since when has rushing something technological to market with a clear industry leader, truely benefits anyone?" Many could say the same about Vista, yet if that's what you would suggest I would have to disagree with you. All technology could use an extra six months of ideas and development before deployed. I agree with much of what you're stating, but in many ways I feel Zune is late upon arrival more so than pooped out. And any decent competition for the iPod will only push Apple to add better features and functionality to their products. That's all I was saying.

"you do need to learn to read...I said probably-that makes it an estimate, not a statistic." "probably 99%" - Probably means you made it up, and by throwing 99% in there you were making an attempt at validating your possition by making it appear as though you had some form of a statistic for backup. That's not estimating, and I can read just fine thank you. And it was just a joke to begin with till you had to go and get technical. With your outlandish attitude at times, is quite fine by me if that's the way you want to play it.

Derek: "My point is that there are not individual markets per iPod models. I'm saying the whole part of that article is completely wrong. You can't have 20% of the "30GB only iPod model market." It doesn't exist. Yes, Zune is absolutely competing against all models of MP3 players in the MP3 player market. That would include all iPod sales. Unless of course, one is to suggest that there is individual MP3 player markets between different models. In which case I'd say the person who suggests that is silly. That'd be like saying Ford has 20% of the Jeep Liberty market. No, I don't follow you there. Or Paul, or Microsoft." It's not like saying Ford has 20% of the Jeep Liberty market. Ford makes their Explorer - an SUV. Jeep makes the Liberty - an SUV. The market comparison there is Ford's Explorer owns X% of the SUV market while Jeep's Liberty owns X% of the SUV market. MS is saying they hope to get 20% of the 30G+ MP3 player market. They're not trying to compete against the iPod Nano, Speck, or whatever other iPod there might be. There are different levels (sub-markets if you will) in the MP3 player market. Just like there are different markets in TVs, cars, _____.

jersey Fair enough. But even so, I don't see how Microsoft would be making claims of gaining that much ground on the 30GB iPod model as they sell far more than 5 million of that particular model a year. The nano is the only model that sells as high as the 30GB iPod.

Derek- Attitude...how about this: "This year iPod sales reached 40 million......... Let me catch my breath for a minute haha." When the iPeople have attitude its a good thing...but when somebody that disagrees with them shows some attitude, shame on them...another double standard. --tayme

Orion: That was a fantastic response to my post. You argued it very well and made me step back and seriously consider the implications of what you said. Here is what I think: Yes, I'll grant that monopolies over consumables are more dangerous than those over non-consumables. But that doesn't explain the better part of a decade that Microsoft failed to update Internet Explorer. And, moreover, Windows is not exactly non-consumable. Computers only last so long - whether due to technical breakdown or just the fact that they become too slow to keep up with modern demands. And since most people get Windows with a new computer, you can think of Windows as a consumable with a long lifespan - very similar to a car. This means that Windows will sell simply due to the fact that computers must be replaced. Windows will sell independent of any innovation on Microsoft's part. Therefore, unless there are competitors like Apple and Linux, Microsoft does not in fact have an incentive to truly innovate. Their product will sell itself simply because the hardware that runs it must be replaced from time to time. And again, I do not believe monopolies are ever good for innovation. You suggest Microsoft would challenge itself to keep innovating. I disagree. There would be no pride in beating someone else - which is a huge motivation. I mean, how much fun would football games be if a team played itself? There wouldn't be any heart in it. And, honestly, we would all miss the Apple flamewars just a little bit. Deep down, in some remote corner of his heart, even Waethorn would be a little disappointed.

Okay, bdk, you're contradicting yourself. You said this earlier: "Microsoft already HAS two huge monopolies. Why do you people keep supporting their drive to gain more? " And now: "Therefore, unless there are competitors like Apple and Linux, Microsoft does not in fact have an incentive to truly innovate. Their product will sell itself simply because the hardware that runs it must be replaced from time to time." "And again, I do not believe monopolies are ever good for innovation." In short, you said earlier: Windows = monopoly And now: If(Windows == monopoly){ Apple=0; Linux=0; //indicating that Apple and Linux will not exist } But Apple and Linux !=0 so how does that make Windows a monopoly? Moreover,we are seeing innovation from Microsoft and Apple and the Open Source community whereas you pointed out earlier that if Windows had been a monopoly, Microsoft would have no "incentive to truly innovate." Now, coming to my second question, even if MS does have two huge monopolies, what's wrong with them entering new markets?

Wow! 5 pages in 1 day for something that's such a flop eh? Hmm....If Microsoft wanted people to talk about it to generate buzz, then I'd say MISSION ACCOMPLISHED! Whether something like this is a success or failure, that kind of marketing is money in the bank. When Apple started out, they had similar issues when marketing against the better-established Creative and Diamond Multimedia at the time. It took them 5 years to get where they are today by generating marketing buzz, both positive and negative. Public exposure was key though, and it's where Creative and Diamond lost out. Now Microsoft is attempting to start out harder than the iPod did when it was first released. They'll learn from their shortcomings over the current competition, but for a 10 month dev cycle and a version 1.0 product, it is a more solid offering than any other v1.0 digital audio player/platform ever released. I just wish it was available outside the US. Oh and about the lack of video support, that's also irrelevent to me, because iTunes doesn't offer video & TV outside the US either. And about those iPod sales figures, lets not forget about all the contests, gift packs, Oscar-attendee baskets, and FreePay.com "giveaways". Most volume sales with Apple end up getting EXTREME discounts on players. A few months back I read about the ratio of paid vs. free iPods in a volume order, and it's something insanely low like 12:1. At those rates, Lord Jobs-almighty must be fibbing about how little the iTunes store makes on music purchases. I do recall that he said that Apple makes no money on the store, but only on the hardware, as most of the money goes to the RIAA (nice job pointing fingers there!), and the few cents per song left goes to the studios. It's either that, or their hardware is a piece of crap, and costs them next to nothing to manufacture. Hmmm....

Actually, Waethorn, the only reason any of these comments sections get to higher page numbers is because of Apple ;) Go back and count the number of posts that are specifically on topic about the Zune. Not many. Shark: Sorry, I didn't make this clear, but my response above was purely hypothetical. I was simply responding to Orion's very good answer in a "what if Microsoft had a pure monopoly and no one else existed in the market" world. I'm not trying to say that just because you have a monopoly you can't innovate. Instead, I'm saying that the type of innovation that we would see if Microsoft were simply trying to "outdo" itself as Orion suggests would be much weaker than the innovation we see as Microsoft fights Apple, Linux, OpenOffice, etc. Waethorn: Nice conjectures. Come back when you have some proof.

"According to a Microsoft representative who briefed me on these plans yesterday, the company expects to ship over 1 million Zune players by the end of their fiscal year, which ends June 30, 2007. That's enough to give Zune 10 to 20 percent of the market currently enjoyed by the Apple iPod device the Zune most closely competes with." OK, I'm admittedly a Mac user and a Mac professional, but I have to question the math above. If Apple sells 10 million iPods per QUARTER (average of 2005-2006, according to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPod), how is 1 million 10-20 percent of that? One million Zunes is 1.6 percent of sales, not 10 or 20! It may be 10-20 percent of the 30gb iPod it most competes with, but the statement is very misrepresentative of the actual market for these players.

"People use the term monopoly. But, how could they really create a monopoly in this market?" I don't expect them to, because the Zune is basically a "me too" product that offers no compelling features to make it an attractive alternative to the market leader. "If the Zune is soooo bad, and people are already stuck with DRM'ed music in the iTMS, there shouldn't be a problem, right??? Nobody complains about the iTMS monopoly, do they?" Only MicroZealots. :-) Look, I've said it before and I'll say it again: There is nothing wrong with being a monopoly. It's not even illegal. What IS illegal is to use your monopoly status to stifle competition in a particular market. Apple isn't doing that, so no, I'm not complaining. There's plenty of competition in the portable player market (and more, IMHO, is always good). The reason they can't get any traction is because most of the competition, frankly, sucks.

lotsa, not only MS zealots are complaining about Apple's monopoly on the iTMS (notice not their monopoly on the iPod market, a big difference between the two). Remember France? Or, read Paul's Internet Nexus, with this little tidbit from the WSJ: "If DRM benefits anyone, Mr. Goldberg argued, it's technology companies like Apple, because it makes it trickier for consumers that have made hefty purchases of digital music through iTunes to switch to non-Apple music devices in the future." While the iPod certainly is a very good device, and many people are no doubt used to the iPod, and therefore will continue to buy them (hey, that's the same argument as to why MS is so popular according to the iPeople), there have been some devices in the market that were in same cases better than a similar iPod model. The Creative Zen models are very nice, but not being able to move your music library (easily) is a concern. And to requote what bdk has said: "This means that [the iPod] will sell simply due to the fact that [electronics] must be replaced. [The iPod] will sell independent of any innovation on [Apple's] part" And when you have an investment in music that can not be (easily) moved, people don't have much choice. In some cases, it is because the competition is not as good, but not in all cases.

Waethorn is exactly right...for something that is no challenge to the iPod, you iPeople sure put up quite a fuss. I mean, if you don;'t like it or want it, then why all of the chatter? Its kinda like bdk's issues with Verizon...if you don't like them, and they have done so much wrong to you...why are you still a customer? Must have signed that 2 year contract to get the new phone, huh? And, you'll probably re-sign with them when the time comes. You know why? Its either lazyness or complacency...or you can be bought off with a so called $200 phone for $49!!! If Zune is no worry to you--shut up--move on--get over it...If you are worried that MS might just make something of it, keep on ranting. Its time to **** or get off the pot!!! --tayme

"for something that is no challenge to the iPod, you iPeople sure put up quite a fuss. I mean, if you don;'t like it or want it, then why all of the chatter? " PART 1: Sometimes the best product isn't in the majority. Like Mac OS. Mirosoft Windows is the majority and years of people having to deal with its security issues, driver issues, and reliability issues have cause the public to think that "computers" (i.e. PCs running Windows) are hard to learn, use, and maintain. They've learned that using a "computer" requires anti-virus, visits to the PC-clinic or a relative, and all the other hassles that go with using Windows. They cannot see that a better alternative exists because they've been led to believe that "computer" = Microsoft Windows. And since the third-party software they probably use is Windows-only, they're locked in. Mirosoft event went one step further and added a mafia-style OneCare subscription plan to Windows to nickel and dime their users more. Then there was Netscape. A brilliant web browser that introduced the Internet to several people in 1994. Then IE was born. Through integrating it with Windows, MS made IE #1. And with IE came all the additional vectors for Windows security problems, like ActiveX and all that other security-compromising crap. But that dovetails nicely into the "protection" OneCare provides. -- CONTINUED in PART 2, below

PART 2: And it was only Microsoft who could provide a games console that would crash and require a reboot. Every Xbox user I ever spoke too constantly mentioned games crashing and discs getting scratched. Even that terrible recall. I never heard anything like that about PS2s or GCNs. The original Xbox had only two good things: It created a brand name for eventual game instrudy domination and created the idea of a subscription-based gaming service. Nickel and diming the children, Microsoft -- how pathetic. The Xbox 360 got the early jump on the NextGen consoles and is already #1 over the PS3 and the Wii. So yeah, Apple's iPod+iTunes ecosystem is currently the leader and works perfectly. People have responded to this ease of use and the portable digital media industry is flourishing. Microsoft now has the Zune, which it will sell at a loss or possibly even give away for free, just to get it into the hands of as many people as they can, eventually to become #1 in digitl music players and locking people into using a subscription music service or a per-track-fee for DRM'd files with very few privileges (say what you want about iTunes DRM -- at least you can re-rip all itunes tracks to MP3s for use on other devices). When the Zune becomes #1, the world of digital media will become bogged down with viruses, spyware, draconian DRM, and usability issues that will make people new to the portable media player scene 5 years from now think that using/managing a portable media device is "hard" when it never was until Zune came into play.

Apple: People stole from us (implying we were the first to make it). And subverted a crappier product out of their theft. And now coersed the public into using this crappier product. How in the devil do you be first to market with a better product and still get beaten? Do they ship rattlesnakes in the boxes or something? Oh wait, thats right, OSX 10 actually sucked, bad. Made Windows2000 look like a gift from God type of suck. But now in OSX 10 SP4, you've made it so much better, you want people to come harking back. Tell you what, when I actually do get a virus, due to my lack of virus software it should be any day now (right? heh), I'll be sure to let everyone know about how horrible WinXP is, until then, I'll keep using my productive task bar, that shows me the actual name of the document I have open relative to the program, instead of a feast of icons I have to fight to get around.

More examples: PDAs: Palm Pilots were doing great. Then came Pocket PCs. iPaq Pocket PCs were nice until you let it run out of juice. Then it forgot EVERYTHING. Palms used a second mobo-style battery to retain data for situations like this. Smartphones: Palm- and Symbian-based phones developed a solid reputation for getting the job done. Enter SmartPhones running Windows Mobile 2005. Only Microsoft could develop a cell phone OS that would crash. Too any Motorola Q's and Windows Mobile-based Treos find their way to my help desk. The Palm-based ones never come back for help. They just work. Search Engines: Google finally delivered on giving people the best, most relevent, and fastest search service ever. So good, that "google" has become a verb in our lexicon. So good, Apple, Mozilla and others have integrated it directly into their browsers since so many people would just bookmark Google or make Google their start page. Now here comes Microsoft's Live.com. A second attempt to dethrone Google, since MSN search failed miserably despite being the default search for IE6. Live.com may have better luck, with its status as IE7's default search engine and being located in the typical spot people look for their browser's "google" field. Except it's not a google field with IE7 by default.

I'll bet you feel good having that off your chest, huh bonchy? So, basically, you are saying that all people are stupid and cannot make decisions on they're own...that they are not knowledgeable enough to download and install the browser of their choice or to buy the product of their choice. Nice...

BMN: Please don't insert words into my statements to make it seem like I said something I didn't. You use the brackets to paraphrase something or to add context to a statement you are quoting, you do not use them to shift the context to something else entirely. My statement was about a world with a single monopoly and no competitors, such as orion suggested. In that case, innovation would not be necessary. However, that case does not exist. Both Apple and Microsoft are challenged by outside competitors. So, again, I'll thank you to stop putting words in my mouth.

oh for the love of God, this site sucks so much. Now all I get when I try to post is "service unavailable" so I reload and hit submit and boom: double posting. Fantastic. I love to think that somewhere, some moron got paid to put this system together.

"Fantastic. I love to think that somewhere, some moron got paid to put this system together." Hehe... yeah. I wonder what this thing looks like under the hood.

"Fantastic. I love to think that somewhere, some moron got paid to put this system together" Microsoft Server and database technologies working at their finest. I'm sure WindowsItPro.com has all sorts of White Papers saying their TCO is low for using all-MS solutions. Nothing about usability though. heh.

"Microsoft Server and database technologies working at their finest." Actually...its bad coders and admins. Your ignorant anti-MS bigotry can't work in every case. --tayme

tayme: ""Microsoft Server and database technologies working at their finest." Actually...its bad coders and admins. Your ignorant anti-MS bigotry can't work in every case." It's MacroMedia Coldfusion Webserver anyway, so he's not only ignorant, he's stupid too.

Does anyone know the key combination to enter that symbol Prince changed his name to so I don't have to refresh to post?

mtkates: No, I do not know that combination. But apparently you figured it out if you successfully posted the comment. ;) Also, it's been a long time since we've gotten an article up to the 7's 8's and 9's. I think the last one was right around WWDC06.

tayme: "And, you'll [bdk] probably re-sign with them when the time comes. You know why? Its either lazyness or complacency...or you can be bought off with a so called $200 phone for $49!!!" No. I think iPhone will be Cingular only at launch. :-)

Actually, iPhone is already trademarked, so sadly, Apple has to think up another name for it. Go Canada! And your pre-patenting thoughtyness!

thoughtyness? You're either very clever and have mixed the words thoughtfulness and naughtiness or unaware of the word thoughtfulness's existence.

vandil, the stuff you mention about Windows Mobile has more to do with the hardware manufacturers than it has to do with Windows Mobile itself. The devices that lost power would lose information, but if the manufacturers had actually included a backup power source, it would not have been a problem. And by mentioning the Q, you forgot to mention that it is made by Motorola, which has a horrible track record in the reliability department. This has nothing to do with Windows Mobile. And I like Palm, but too bad we're still waiting on a more modern OS. Garnet is just getting old, and their attempts to modernize have been going nowhere. It won't take the Zune to become bogged down in DRM. We already live in that world, and it isn't only the iTMS DRM. I also don't see how charging the same amount as a comparable iPod is the equivalent to giving it away. And if they were to charge less, one of two things would happen. First, Apple may drop the price, and we would have a nice little price war. Or, Apple could sue MS for dumping. Either way, a competitive market will solve the issue. Your comments about this site are naive. Windows Server/IIS can certainly host a competent and effective web site. However, that front end still needs to be designed right. From what I can tell they use WebSideStory for content management, and heavy use of JavaScript. Last I checked, MS has no real involvement with either of those. bdk: I made it more than clear that I was changing your words by saying I was going to requote your statement. If this was a more advanced forum, it would have been easier for me to to that, and for everyone else to realize it, but I can't.

I've got a Q and it's more reliable than my UT Starcom 6700 Pocket PC (used also by several US providers as well as Telus and Bell in Canada). Lately it had been acting up. Often pressing the power button to turn it on would result in nothing, even if the battery was charged. It's a real pain in the @$$ to have to soft reset it at least once a day and wait 20-30secs for it to power on so I took it in for repair. After about 3 weeks, they concluded that there was a defective RAM chip (of all things). Anyway, I decided to get a Q after that. I use Telus and although I wasn't on a contract, I'd had the 6700 for less than a year and it was still under warranty. They offered to repair or replace it for free, or I could take the Q for $50. I took the Q. They even threw in a free belt clip case with it. The Q has 2 batteries - one standard, one extended - and lasts almost a week on the extended battery without a recharge. I've never had to soft reset it once and I've had it for more than a month now. It's pretty solid.

Vista crashes on basic deep sleep and hibernation (enjoy that BIOS, suckers), while Macs go to sleep flawlessly: http://neosmart.net/blog/archives/299