Both Oars in the Water
UNIX dropped the ball. Imagine a sunny day on the Charles River. A UNIX crew is in one boat, and a Windows crew is in another. The Windows boat is coxswained by none other than Bill Gates, whom the crew follows with diligence and loyalty as it rows in one direction. No one is quite certain who is coxswain of the UNIX boat or whose directions the crew is following--especially as the crew members appear to row in different directions.
Winning large markets requires a focused commitment. The standard architecture for centralized enterprise computing, MVS, was set by IBM with that same singularity of purpose that Microsoft has today. Now, Microsoft effectively controls a virtual corporation of ISVs, Solution Providers, and Systems Integrators who are all rowing in the same direction. When they compete, everybody wins: Customers and vendors all benefit from the consistency of products and the economics of mass distribution. NT gives Microsoft the ability to bring this business model to the enterprise. Although many people think that UNIX is still the heir apparent to this market, it lacks the singularity of purpose to compete with Microsoft and NT.
Windows NT offers freedom of choice, which is of significant economic value to users. It is the result of an absolutely consistent operating system in terms of APIs and UIs. Ironically, this consistency is born out of one vendor's control over these critical interfaces. Although UNIX enthusiasts disdain this control, the resulting consistency creates a high-volume market and volume brings value to customers. Hundreds of vendors sell products based on the consistent NT interfaces, so NT users have more choices to switch brand loyalties and retain their hardware, software, and training investments, especially as they make subsequent purchases.
A New Mass Market
We need to look outside the computer industry for adequate comparisons. Few people admitted shopping at Kmart 10 years ago. Now price makes the difference in most buying decisions, and mass distribution of brand-name products has been popularized by stores such as Price Club and Home Depot. It's even fashionable to shop there. By selling in volume, these vendors can cut prices and beat the competition. The Japanese did much the same thing with cars, offering simple value and price for years. In 1990, with the introduction of the Infiniti and Lexus lines, they dramatically cut the price for luxury cars and showed
customers that they could buy high-end quality for significantly lower prices.
Enterprise computing will be the next beneficiary of this business model. Microsoft has created a high-volume market where competition brings quality and value to customers. Mass distribution of NT products will provide distributed enterprise solutions that are built from commodity components and will essentially change the face of the industry.
In addition, the plethora of Windows applications now available, along with those that will arrive with Windows 95, make NT an even more attractive investment. Businesses choose their operating systems on the basis of available applications, and NT can support mission-critical applications on the same machines that run popular Windows programs. Furthermore, although both UNIX and NT Server are powerful application servers, NT Server excels in file and print services--areas where UNIX is traditionally weak. NT's ability to support this range of services on a common server architecture creates additional cost-saving opportunities for organizations. Companies can consolidate their UNIX and Novell NetWare server architectures, removing unnecessary complexity and saving on system administration, software licensing, and training.
NT is destined to become the standard architecture for distributed enterprise computing, creating a dramatically larger market for workstations and small to midsize servers. Any UNIX vendor who wants a piece of the action needs to be aware of market realities.
UNIX has a valuable base of enterprise client/server applications and developers that NT needs in order to win the enterprise. The UNIX community--software vendors, hardware vendors, and corporate users--needs to leverage these valuable assets as the NT market grows. How individual members of this community do this will determine their future in enterprise computing. This leverage will need to take into account market timing, transition costs, the ability to fully exploit the NT architecture, and the preservation and acquisition of customers. UNIX vendors can thrive in the NT era, but they must recognize the opportunity now.
Such an evolution is not unprecedented. Ken Olsen, Digital's founder and former president, once described UNIX as "snake oil" when Digital's VMS was on top of the world. NT now brings the same advantages over UNIX that UNIX once had over VMS. Consequently, each member of the UNIX community needs a strategy for moving to Windows NT that will leverage its current investments and assets. The time to act is now.
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